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Uncertainty decomposition refers to the task of decomposing the total uncertainty of a predictive model into aleatoric (data) uncertainty, resulting from inherent randomness in the data-generating process, and epistemic (model) uncertainty, resulting from missing information in the model’s training data. In large language models (LLMs) specifically, identifying sources of uncertainty is an important step toward improving reliability, trustworthiness, and interpretability, but remains an important open research question. In this paper, we introduce an uncertainty decomposition framework for LLMs, called input clarification ensembling, which can be applied to any pre-trained LLM. Our approach generates a set of clarifications for the input, feeds them into an LLM, and ensembles the corresponding predictions. We show that, when aleatoric uncertainty arises from ambiguity or under-specification in LLM inputs, this approach makes it possible to factor an (un-clarified) LLM’s predictions into separate aleatoric and epistemic terms, using a decomposition similar to the one employed by Bayesian neural networks. Empirical evaluations demonstrate that input clarification ensembling provides accurate and reliable uncertainty quantification on several language processing tasks. 

Uncertainty decomposition refers to the task of decomposing the total uncertainty of a model into data (aleatoric) uncertainty, resulting from the inherent complexity or ambiguity of the data, and model (epistemic) uncertainty, resulting from the lack of knowledge in the model. Performing uncertainty decomposition for large language models (LLMs) is an important step toward improving the reliability, trustworthiness, and interpretability of LLMs, but this research task is very challenging and remains unresolved. The existing canonical method, Bayesian Neural Network (BNN), cannot be applied to LLMs, because BNN requires training and ensembling multiple variants of models, which is infeasible or prohibitively expensive for LLMs. In this paper, we introduce an uncertainty decomposition framework for LLMs, called input clarifications ensemble, which bypasses the need to train new models. Rather than ensembling models with different parameters, our approach generates a set of clarifications for the input, feeds them into the fixed LLMs, and ensembles the corresponding predictions. We show that our framework shares a symmetric decomposition structure with BNN. Empirical evaluations demonstrate that the proposed framework provides accurate and reliable uncertainty quantification on various tasks. Code will be made publicly available at https://github.com/UCSB-NLP-Chang/llm_uncertainty . 

An unsupervised text-to-speech synthesis (TTS) system learns to generate speech waveforms corresponding to any written sentence in a language by observing: 1) a collection of untranscribed speech waveforms in that language; 2) a collection of texts written in that language without access to any transcribed speech. Developing such a system can significantly improve the availability of speech technology to languages without a large amount of parallel speech and text data. This paper proposes an unsupervised TTS system based on an alignment module that outputs pseudo-text and another synthesis module that uses pseudo-text for training and real text for inference. Our unsupervised system can achieve comparable performance to the supervised system in seven languages with about 10-20 hours of speech each. A careful study on the effect of text units and vocoders has also been conducted to better understand what factors may affect unsupervised TTS performance. The samples generated by our models can be found at https://cactuswiththoughts.github.io/UnsupTTS-Demo, and our code can be found at https://github.com/lwang114/UnsupTTS. 

Non-parallel many-to-many voice conversion remains an interesting but challenging speech processing task. Many style-transfer-inspired methods such as generative adversarial networks (GANs) and variational autoencoders (VAEs) have been proposed. Recently, AUTOVC, a conditional autoencoders (CAEs) based method achieved state-of-the-art results by disentangling the speaker identity and speech content using information-constraining bottlenecks, and it achieves zero-shot conversion by swapping in a different speaker’s identity embedding to synthesize a new voice. However, we found that while speaker identity is disentangled from speech content, a significant amount of prosodic information, such as source F0, leaks through the bottleneck, causing target F0 to fluctuate unnaturally. Furthermore, AUTOVC has no control of the converted F0 and thus unsuitable for many applications. In the paper, we modified and improved autoencoder-based voice conversion to disentangle content, F0, and speaker identity at the same time. Therefore, we can control the F0 contour, generate speech with F0 consistent with the target speaker, and significantly improve quality and similarity. We support our improvement through quantitative and qualitative analysis.